What impact does the number of followers have on TikTok view counts?
In a previous post, we estimated the impact of various
metrics on the view counts for a video. This post extends that analysis to
include information about the creator’s metrics, notably their follower count.
Key results:
- Each additional follower increases the expected view count by 0.1 (i.e. ~10% of followers see each video)
- Other results are qualitatively similar (i.e. you need ~0.2 likes per view in order to have your video be promoted; share and comment counts are not predictive)
Detailed results
Please refer to our previous post for more information on
the data set and methods used.
Transformation
|
Regression Type
|
Shares
|
Comments
|
Likes
|
Follower Count
|
Intercept
|
Alpha
|
R^2
|
Normal
|
Lasso
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.03
|
0.10
|
-1176.69
|
100000000.00
|
0.89
|
Normal
|
Ridge
|
-3.73
|
-10.95
|
5.17
|
0.10
|
-2334.26
|
100000000.00
|
0.89
|
Normal
|
OLS
|
-3.74
|
-10.98
|
5.17
|
0.10
|
-2337.18
|
N/A
|
0.89
|
Log
|
Lasso
|
0.00
|
-0.06
|
0.96
|
0.10
|
1.36
|
0.01
|
0.96
|
Log
|
Ridge
|
0.01
|
-0.09
|
0.97
|
0.10
|
1.34
|
1.00
|
0.96
|
Log
|
OLS
|
0.01
|
-0.09
|
0.97
|
0.10
|
1.34
|
N/A
|
0.96
|
None
|
Lasso
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
4.56
|
0.00
|
10416.20
|
37200000.00
|
0.80
|
None
|
Ridge
|
25.17
|
-0.26
|
4.41
|
0.00
|
9774.50
|
100000000.00
|
0.81
|
None
|
OLS
|
27.05
|
-0.26
|
4.40
|
0.00
|
9752.73
|
N/A
|
0.84
|
Logarithm
|
Lasso
|
-0.03
|
-0.05
|
1.08
|
0.00
|
1.64
|
0.01
|
0.95
|
Logarithm
|
Ridge
|
-0.04
|
-0.08
|
1.10
|
0.00
|
1.61
|
1.00
|
0.95
|
Logarithm
|
OLS
|
-0.04
|
-0.08
|
1.10
|
0.00
|
1.61
|
N/A
|
0.95
|
Normal
As before, these graphs plot the actual number of views a video received vs. the number predicted by the regression.
Log-transformed
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